Any hope that was left for the congestion in California ports to improve, has vanished, with no optimism ahead that it’ll improve. Late in August, French carrier CMA CGM stated that capacity constraints “are expected to continue until the first half of 2022.” With America’s import system already stretched to the limit, it looks like it will have to handle even higher volumes, reported by Freightwaves.

Freightwaves is anticipating that carriers will be forced to cancel more sailings as terminal berths max out and ships get stuck at anchor, even more cargo will get “rolled” (pushed to a future sailing), and importers will face longer delays and even less slot availability as they scramble to build inventories with the holidays coming up.

At the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, an average of 16 container ships were at berths or at anchor on any given day. Two weeks ago on Sunday, there were 76 box ships either at berths, at anchor or drifting, which is 4.8 times the pre-COVID level. The Marine Exchange data shows that LA/LB terminals are accommodating an average of 28 ships each day this month, with all the rest being overflow that heads to a make shift “parking lot” in San Pedro Bay.

Imports still have a long way to go, as U.S. retail sales continue to outpace inventory restock. Jason Miller, an associate professor of supply chain management at Michigan State University’s Eli Broad College of Business, showed data that retail inventories are now substantially higher than pre-COVID, but sales have been so high that the inventory-to-sales ratio is far below where it was pre-COVID. The level of inventory to sales actually fell slightly in June, to 0.94 months of sale, according to Freightwaves.